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美分析师:美国玉米市场应重视中西部春季干燥的预期

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发表于 2017-11-20 08:32:11 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
美分析师:美国玉米市场应重视中西部春季干燥的预期
专栏作家凯伦·布朗撰文称,经过连续三年的丰收后,玉米贸易商和农户有理由要小心美国可能会出现作物生长问题。 最新的夏季气象预报值得密切关注。美国气候预测中心上周四发布的最新美国气象月报及季报显示,未来三个月中西部地区可能变得干燥――中西部是美国玉米主产区。 许多其他气象模型和专家一直指出,今年夏季至少美国玉米种植带的部分地区可能天气干燥广州做人流手术去哪里,如果干燥程度严重,将会威胁到玉米单产潜力。如果中西部地区5月份天气干燥,这将有助于春播工作,届时正值玉米播种繁忙季节。干燥天气会加快播种进度,降低播种耽搁的风险。美国的帕默尔干旱指数(PDSI)显示,大部分头号产区的土壤墒情充足,能够维持到整个春播结束。3月份中西部地区的PDSI为1.68,远远高于20年平均水平0.52,但是低于2016年3月份的2.61,这也是40多年来的同期最高水平。 4月份降雨活跃,尤其是中西部的北部,目前许多美国农户开始在湿润的土壤上种植玉米。春播开始时下雨,有利于玉米播种广州人流医院哪家比较好,但是如果夏季时降雨还没有减弱,那么就会带来问题,届时作物进入单产形成期。如果未来一个月美国气候预测中心仍预计今年夏季中西部地区天气干燥,尤其如果干燥强度加剧,那么肯定会影响到玉米单产潜力。过去35年中成都无疼人流手术,PDSI值在5月到8月期间下降时广州人流医生咨询,最终玉米单产介于平均到非常差之间,但是从未超过平均水平。当春播开始时天气极其多雨时,情况最为显著广州安全无痛人流费用,8月份时天气非常干燥。这样的情况出现在2011年和1983年,当时美国玉米产量是历史最低之一。 分析结果还显示,当春播开始天气多雨时,PDSI在夏季需要至少保持稳定或者增加,才能得到最佳的单产结果。2016年玉米单产创下历史最高纪录,当时4月份中西部的PDSI值创下历史最高值,夏季充沛降雨使得土壤保持墒情。 但是,如果夏季降雨过多,也可能造成灾难,比如1993年,当时春播开始时天气极其多雨广州治疗宫颈肥大的费用,造成玉米单产远远低于平均水平。当玉米播种开始时天气很中性――即不多雨也不干燥――夏季天气同样不极端,这样单产会达到最理想的水平。这样的情况出现在2004年广州哪家医院无痛人流好,当时玉米单产创下历史史上最高之一。 在美国玉米单产理想或糟糕的年份里,除了降水外,夏季温度也在一定程度上影响到玉米单产潜力。整体来看,在白天温度适宜以及夜间温度显著下降的情况下,玉米单产通常会达到最佳。如果白天温度超过正常,那么夜间温度下降对于平衡风险至关重要,夜间温度偏高在以前曾损害过玉米单产成都无痛人流正规医院。美国气候预测中心预计5月份东部玉米种植带温度偏高,中西部的北部和大平原地区温度将接近正常广州人流手术疼吗。不过6月和7月全国的温度将超过平均水平。不过温度偏高本身可能不会带来问题。去年的收成就是极好的例子。一些夜间温度创下多年来的最高广州人流需要花多少钱,但是并未阻止单产超过市场预期广州人流收费,并且创下新高,提高谚语“降雨助收成”的可信度。 汇易饲料养殖更多精彩资讯,请来金融界网站(www.jrj.com.cn)'













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 楼主| 发表于 2017-11-20 13:25:48 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2017-11-20 20:47:22 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2017-11-29 05:42:10 | 显示全部楼层
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